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Change in the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2020: forecast of experts

Change in the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2020: forecast of experts

The answer to an important question that worries all Russian citizens about the future of the domestic currency was given by the Bank of Russia. According to the specialists of this organization, one should not be afraid of serious shocks in the currency sphere by the New Year holidays.

Analyst forecasts

The general volatile trend in the global markets has an extremely moderate response in the domestic financial sector. Even some kind of records in terms of public debt placement almost did not reduce the share of non-residents' investments in stock loan bonds. The depreciation of the ruble remained quite comparable with similar internal indicators of other markets with a development trend. Based on this, the Bank of Russia characterizes the currency situation as calm and stable.
In addition, analysts note that they do not forecast a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity at the end of the calendar year. Such a picture is not typical for the Russian financial market, as evidenced by the last year's figures.
The Financial Markets Risk Review for October of this year, issued by the Bank of Russia, presents forecasts of analysts of the Central Bank in the financial sector, taking into account adjustments for the pandemic. The second wave of the pandemic, as well as the transition to its regime of internal and external market participants, will inevitably affect the financial market.
Such forecasts were fully confirmed during the first wave. A similar situation looms in the European Union with the introduction of new lockdowns at the beginning of this month. At the same time, the markets did not react so actively even to the information about the dramatic situation with the elections in America. With regard to the situation on the financial markets in Russia, a significant role was played by the decline in oil prices in October to the level of $ 40 per barrel (and even lower), as well as the fall in the ruble exchange rate.
According to the Central Bank's review, the devaluation of the domestic currency is comparable to a similar situation with the exchange rate of the domestic currencies of Brazil and Poland. It amounted to 4.7% in September, 2.2% in October. The trend in public debt and the stock market is similar to these countries. The situation in this area is much more complicated in Turkey, where the public debt market is clearly showing weakness.

Federal loan bonds

Large placements of federal loan bonds this fall reduced the share of non-residents in this area of ​​public debt. The drop rate was 23.3%. However, at the same time, the total package of foreigners increased by 42.9 billion rubles.
The initial October auction allowed non-residents to purchase securities totaling 61.6 billion rubles. In September, this figure stood at 63.1 billion. The activity of foreigners and foreign commercial banks in the field of the secondary securities market deserves special attention.

Situation in the foreign exchange market

Analysts assess the situation in the foreign exchange market as calm, setting a critical mark on October 28, 29 and 30. It was on these days that the share of foreign currency purchases by foreign players amounted to 110 billion rubles. At the same time, large domestic credit institutions purchased foreign currency worth 145 billion. Most of the sellers in transactions were non-financial organizations.
A longer outlook forecast by the Central Bank envisages a reduction in the foreign exchange liquidity buffer by the end of the calendar year, as well as in the summer period. These forecasts are standard trends in the Russian foreign exchange market.
It should be noted that the Central Bank does not predict sharp and unstable jumps in the rate of the domestic currency towards the end of the calendar year. The foreign exchange safety cushion in most of the leading banking institutions is positive. This will allow these banks to avoid a shortage of currency. With regard to the weakest participants in this market segment, their currency deficit, in the most negative scenario, will not exceed $ 0.1 billion. This figure exceeded 1.2 billion last year.